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Kenpom player of the year

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    Wildcat Fan pjh13's Avatar
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    Default Kenpom player of the year

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    kPOY Rating
    1 Doug McDermott, Creighton 2.244
    2 Lamar Patterson, Pittsburgh 1.737
    3 Nick Johnson, Arizona 1.675
    4 Marcus Smart, Oklahoma St. 1.652
    5 C.J. Fair, Syracuse 1.533
    6 Julius Randle, Kentucky 1.527
    7 Russ Smith, Louisville 1.515
    8 DeAndre Kane, Iowa St. 1.500
    9 Jabari Parker, Duke 1.430
    10 JayVaughn Pinkston, Villanova 1.427

    This is something he does every year. I'm no exactly sure how he calculates it but he very frequently has players that won't appear on any if the talking heads because of lack of bias. Nice to see NJ open up so high on the list.

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    Wildcat Fan magicmedicine42's Avatar
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    McDermott is killing it this year and probably deserves to be National POY, but I wonder why there's such a huge difference between him and Lamar Patterson (and Nick Johnson, for that matter)?

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    Wildcat Fan moosety2008's Avatar
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    Quote of the week: Johnson and T.J. McConnell “have a resting heart rate of 7” at the end of games.

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    Baltimore Blowfish Palpalife's Avatar
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    Our very own Statman does this too, and in my opinion, much better.

    Here's his list.

    http://hoopsnerd.com/wp-content/uplo...yerRatings.pdf

    He also breaks it down by class, conference and team. EVERY player.

    Hoops Nerd | All NBA & College players rated & ranked

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    Chi City Chronic Esq's Avatar
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    Dougie is clearly running away with this, but this seems like a spot on list of players. I might move a player up or down, but all those guys seem like they should belong on that list.

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    Wildcat Fan Statman's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Palpalife View Post
    Our very own Statman does this too, and in my opinion, much better.

    Here's his list.

    http://hoopsnerd.com/wp-content/uplo...yerRatings.pdf

    He also breaks it down by class, conference and team. EVERY player.

    Hoops Nerd | All NBA & College players rated & ranked
    Thanks for the props - I must have missed this the first time. Now that I'm no longer laid up like I was after the ear surgery, I am going to attempt to have the college ratings updated by this morning thru Sunday's games (2-23).

    I obviously think my ratings/rankings are much better that what you'd find anywhere, or I wouldn't bother doing them. Plus, I rate EVERYBODY. I'm not hand selecting some dudes from the best teams then throwing together some simple rating based on player usage and efficiency.

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    Wildcat Fan Statman's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Esq View Post



    Dougie is clearly running away with this, but this seems like a spot on list of players. I might move a player up or down, but all those guys seem like they should belong on that list.
    All I can say is at least he got CJ Fair off his list. Although it still appears a bit hand selected, least all these guys are now the proper best players from their own teams.

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    Baltimore Blowfish Pras's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Palpalife View Post
    Our very own Statman does this too, and in my opinion, much better.

    Here's his list.

    http://hoopsnerd.com/wp-content/uplo...yerRatings.pdf

    He also breaks it down by class, conference and team. EVERY player.

    Hoops Nerd | All NBA & College players rated & ranked
    Nice to see Alan Williams get some love. Watched him back when we were watching Bejarano and dude has been playing well for UCSB.
    "It's all basketball oriented," Aaron Gordon on why he chose Arizona.

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    Wildcat Fan Statman's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Pras View Post
    Nice to see Alan Williams get some love. Watched him back when we were watching Bejarano and dude has been playing well for UCSB.
    Funny how Pomeroy himself wrote an article about how much he loves the kid and the numbers he puts up: http://regressing.deadspin.com/the-f...all-1507331661 - yet, I don't think Alan Williams ever appeared on kPOY. Yet CJ Fair had been in the kPOY top 10 all year (instead of Ennis, absurd) until these latest Syracuse losses.

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    Baltimore Blowfish TraneofThought's Avatar
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    KP actually has an Alan Williams section pre-written into his weekly review (and has for a couple years now).

    I know Williams' mother, so I thought it was pretty cool when KP started following him closely, despite him being an unheralded freshman.

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    Chi City Chronic Esq's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Statman View Post
    All I can say is at least he got CJ Fair off his list. Although it still appears a bit hand selected, least all these guys are now the proper best players from their own teams.
    He mentioned, as I believe losgatos pointed out, that it's next to impossible to be in his KPOY list and be outside the top 20 as a team. I am not sure if that is outside his top 20, or AP top 20 or whatever. Point being, team success is weighted.

    That, in my opinion, isn't a terrible thing anyway.

    It would get guys like KJ McDaniels off the list. At the same time, how does he not have Casey Prather in the top 10?

    This is good work:

    http://hoopsnerd.com/

    HnR NCAA POY
    : Doug McDermott (Creighton). Everyone’s favorite shooter, he’s at the top in terms of HnR (180 HnR). Alan Williams (UC Santa Barbara) is tops in HnI (180 HnI), where his two missed games aren’t counted against him.
    HnR 1st Team AA: Doug McDermott 180 HnR (Creighton), KJ McDaniels 178 (Clemson),Alan Williams 174 (UC Santa Barbara), Shabazz Napier 172 (UConn), Lamar Patterson170 (Pitt).

    HnR All Senior Team: Doug McDermott 180 HnR(Creighton), Shabazz Napier 172 (UConn), Lamar Patterson 170 (Pitt), Xavier Thames 169 (San Diego St.),Casey Prather168 (Florida).
    HnR All Junior Team: KJ McDaniels 178 HnR (Clemson), Alan Williams 174 (UC Santa Barbara),Frank Kaminsky 164 (Wisconsin), Brad Waldow 163 (St. Mary’s), Aaron White160 (Iowa).
    HnR All Sophomore Team: Marcus Smart 163 HnR (OK State), Kyle Anderson 161 (UCLA),Fred VanVleet 159 (Wichita State), Nik Stauskus 159 (Michigan), Josh Scott 159 (Colorado).
    HnR All Frosh Team: Jabari Parker 164 HnR (Duke), Joel Embiid 163 (Kansas), Julius Randle 157 (Kentucky), Tyler Ennis 154 (Syracuse), Noah Vonleh 147 (Indiana).

    http://hoopsnerd.com/
    I love your numbers, reference them 10 times a week at least, probably more so than kenpom - so don't change them at all, ever, please.

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    Wildcat Fan Statman's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by TraneofThought View Post
    KP actually has an Alan Williams section pre-written into his weekly review (and has for a couple years now).

    I know Williams' mother, so I thought it was pretty cool when KP started following him closely, despite him being an unheralded freshman.
    All I'm saying is that CJ Fair, in NO WAY by almost any half way decent analytic, would be rated ahead of Ennis at about any point after mid December - or ahead of Alan Williams after at any point after about game #2 (despite SoS/pace/SoS blah blah). So, I think Pomeroy is hand selecting one guy from each higher team in the major conferences (well, top 2 from the "elite" teams), and running some simple formula. Probably from just the better teams - I believe McDaniels at #9 is the first time some guy NOT on a top 25 ish or better team appeared. I was actually shocked to see him there because of that - even though he's been around top 5 in HnR all season. Maybe Ken saw him play (McDaniels) and really liked him - figured he could add him since he's from a major conference, and he came out #9 by his formula.

    I'll always go back to when Pomeroy was trying to rate everybody and posted just all conference teams - his All SEC team last season was literally the 5 starters from Florida.

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    Wildcat Fan Statman's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Esq View Post
    It would get guys like KJ McDaniels off the list. At the same time, how does he not have Casey Prather in the top 10?

    This is good work:



    I love your numbers, reference them 10 times a week at least, probably more so than kenpom - so don't change them at all, ever, please.
    Now that you mention it - it's shocking Prather isn't there. Top 5 team, good/great stats despite team's crazy slow tempo repressing the stats. The only reason he didn't stay top 5 in HnR all season is because he missed a couple games. I think he's been top 5 in HnI (ignores missed games - Irving was #2 nationally in HnR behind Kemba his injury shortened career) all season.

    BTW - I couldn't finish the ratings last night before sleep - I now have over 80 team errors (sometimes one guy's stats are wrong, sometimes many) I have to fix by hand after the data download. It literally is now taking me like over 3 hours just finding the errors, and finding the right source for the proper fix, and documenting it for the next upload because I'll have to do it all over again. No one would probably know if I did ratings in which under maybe 4% of the players' stats were wrong (many by a tiny bit, not changing the ratings much at all for the majority of errors), but I would know. It'd be so much faster if I could ignore it.

    The ratings will be updated sometime after midnight tonight though Sunday's games - over 24 hours later than I'd like, but oh well.

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    Chi City Chronic Esq's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Statman View Post
    Now that you mention it - it's shocking Prather isn't there. Top 5 team, good/great stats despite team's crazy slow tempo repressing the stats. The only reason he didn't stay top 5 in HnR all season is because he missed a couple games. I think he's been top 5 in HnI (ignores missed games - Irving was #2 nationally in HnR behind Kemba his injury shortened career) all season.

    BTW - I couldn't finish the ratings last night before sleep - I now have over 80 errors I have to fix by hand after the data download. It literally is now taking me like over 3 hours just finding the errors, and finding the right source for the proper fix, and documenting it for the next upload because I'll have to do it all over again. No one would probably know if I did ratings in which under 4% of the players' stats were wrong (many by a tiny bit, not changing the ratings much at all for the majority of errors), but I would know. It'd be so much faster if I could ignore it.

    The ratings will be updated sometime after midnight tonight though Sunday's games - over 24 hours later than I'd like, but oh well.
    Your ratings are thorough, but I don't know why you bother with the under 4% people at all. If they're getting that low of minutes, they probably aren't worth tracking. Has Jordin Mayes even made your list yet?

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    Wildcat Fan Statman's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Esq View Post
    Your ratings are thorough, but I don't know why you bother with the under 4% people at all. If they're getting that low of minutes, they probably aren't worth tracking. Has Jordin Mayes even made your list yet?
    No, it's 4% of all players, not the bottom 4% of player minutes. For example - the download might be missing a player on a team, OR 4 guys have their minutes off a little and a few stats a little wrong, or whatever. Since I compile the team stats from the player stats (ensuring the summed products of the players equals the team rating), a team having ones player's stats wrong - or missing a player - will cause that player's rating to be wrong (or missing), and everyone elses ratings on that team to be (albeit probably very slightly) different.

    ALL players have ratings, I only post the guys that play 20% of their team minutes - because the less the player plays, the less chance the rating may be accurate (small sample sizes can skew ratings, garbage time and such).

    Jordin Mayes HnR was a 50 on 2-2, but he played 11% of the available team minutes - so he didn't qualify to be posted. 100 is D1 average, it takes some very poor stats to get a 50 on a great team. His rating will be better in the update - heck, just making a couple shots and getting a couple assists with his small sample size could improve it to like 70.

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    Wildcat Fan Seans Cough's Avatar
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    I like this list...but I don't think Patterson should be at #2 anymore.
    "When I took my visit to UofA, it was like the heavens opened up and showed me the light and behind that light, McKale Center" - Channing Frye

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    Chi City Chronic Esq's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Wcatsbball4lyfe View Post
    I like this list...but I don't think Patterson should be at #2 anymore.
    He isn't. Jabari Parker is number 2 by a wide margin. Patterson is 7th.

  18. #18
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    Originally Posted by Esq View Post



    Dougie is clearly running away with this, but this seems like a spot on list of players. I might move a player up or down, but all those guys seem like they should belong on that list.
    OK, updated the ratings - I'll have it posted on my site sometime in like an hour, gotta write my normal stuff involving the rankings. The rankings are thru Sunday, so I think they directly relate to Pomeroy's listed here:

    1. McDermott, #2 in HnR (a sliver from #1) with a 184.
    2. Parker, #6 in HnR with a 171
    3. NJ, #33 in HnR with a 154
    4. Russ Smith, #26 in HnR w/ a 156
    5. Kilpatrick, #10 in HnR w/ a 166
    6. Napier, #4 in HnR w/ a 174
    7. Patterson, #12 in HnR w/ a 165
    8. Kyle Anderson, #17 in HnR w/ a 160
    9. McDaniels, #1 (barely) in HnR w/ a 184
    10. Randle, #21 in HnR w/ a 158

    The before talked about Alan Williams is #3 in HnR w/ a 175. Prather is #11 w/ a 165. Delon Wright is the highest rated P12 player, #9 overall w/ a 167.

    Oh btw, Jordin Mayes won't be ranked (still less tha 11% of available team minutes, needs 20% to be ranked) - BUT three weeks of actually making a couple buckets, and getting some assists and steals raised his rating from 50 to 93(!) - getting closer to D1 average (100). Amazing what some positive stats can do ratings wise to a previously very poor looking small sample size.

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