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Super Bowl

  1. #1
    Commissioner ACE's Avatar
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    Default Super Bowl

    Over 47

    Broncos' road games the past two seasons (since Manning came on board), 14 of the 16 produced 48+ points, with 10 of them sailing 'over' the total.

    22 of the Broncos' 34 games the past two seasons went 'over' the total, regardless of venue.

    Since 1981, NFL teams with defenses that give up less than 41.3 ppg have gone 'under' the total in 93 of 150 games (62%), if their margin of victory for the season is worse than their opponent's (Denver's margin of victory is 1.33 points better than Seattle's).

    Since Pete Carroll has been head coach, Seattle has gone 'over' the total in 24 of 37 games as underdogs, including seven of nine when the posted total was more than 43 points.

    Broncos have gone 'over' in 29 of their last 43 as a favorite, including 18 of 21 when the O/U line ranged from 42.5 to 52.5 points.

    Last edited by ACE; 01-22-2014 at 08:40 PM.

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    Thx g

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    Thanks bro

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    Wildcat Fan Azwldctfan's Avatar
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    I would be worried about cold weather at this point... Just saying... Seattle doesn't need any help shutting down anybody... but any wind on a 20 degree night and 48 may seem like a stretch... Peyton's ducks need damn near perfect weather conditions to stay in the air.

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    Originally Posted by Azwldctfan View Post
    I would be worried about cold weather at this point... Just saying... Seattle doesn't need any help shutting down anybody... but any wind on a 20 degree night and 48 may seem like a stretch... Peyton's ducks need damn near perfect weather conditions to stay in the air.

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    I feel like this presumption is built into the line for the most part. 10 day forecast is coming out, and we'll see if the total will move at all.

    I know a lot of people will be betting on the under because of this logic.

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    Both offenses have kind of struggled in the playoffs and both defenses have been pretty stingy. Pretty sure Seattle will do what they can to hold on to the ball by feeding Skittles over and over.

    I have much respect for Ace's ability to break down a spread...

    I was thinking Seattle 27 Denver 20 though before I saw any spread... So obviously I should be on Seattle plus the points. If weather was considered than Seattle would be a few point favorite I would think. The fact that Denver is favored makes me think weather isn't playing much of a factor in the line right now.

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    Baltimore Blowfish TraneofThought's Avatar
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    Also:

    > 75% of inter-conference games this season went OVER.

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    Weather is predicted be a hi of 38 and low of 29 with slight chance of snow showers later in the evening.

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    It's true that the game will be played in very cold weather. But there likely will be no precipitation, and very little wind, so I think the weather wont be as much of a factor than some anticipate.
    Last edited by ACE; 01-22-2014 at 04:02 AM.

  11. #11
    Go strong to the mouth! Catbus's Avatar
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    As ACE already alluded to wind is more of a factor on total points scored than cold or even precipitation, so keep an eye on that aspect of the weather as the Super Bowl approaches and the forecast becomes more reliable.
    I don't hold a ticket (side or total) yet but lean with Seattle +2.5.
    Last edited by Catbus; 02-03-2014 at 11:31 AM.
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  12. #12
    Commissioner ACE's Avatar
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    line down to 47 at some places.....

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    Commissioner ACE's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by ACE View Post
    Over 47

    Broncos' road games the past two seasons (since Manning came on board), 14 of the 16 produced 48+ points, with 10 of them sailing 'over' the total.

    22 of the Broncos' 34 games the past two seasons went 'over' the total, regardless of venue.

    Since 1981, NFL teams with defenses that give up less than 41.3 ppg have gone 'under' the total in 93 of 150 games (62%), if their margin of victory for the season is worse than their opponent's (Denver's margin of victory is 1.33 points better than Seattle's).

    Since Pete Carroll has been head coach, Seattle has gone 'over' the total in 24 of 37 games as underdogs, including seven of nine when the posted total was more than 43 points.

    Broncos have gone 'over' in 29 of their last 43 as a favorite, including 18 of 21 when the O/U line ranged from 42.5 to 52.5 points.

    come, come and get on my level. breathe it in with me.

    stong system play.

    winner

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    Five Percenter Ryno's Avatar
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    Thank$ ACE - Over $$$

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    Very nice call.

    It's covering my Denver bet quite well.

  16. #16
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    Nice one Ace. Always good to get those defensive and special teams TDs when you have the over, its a sweet feeling.

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    Wildcat Fan Azwldctfan's Avatar
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    Yes, very nice call.... Although I question if how it got to the over (Seattle with 85% of the points) was close to how you thought it was going to get there? :) Doesn't matter, still counts!! I knew Seattle would win that game but damn I didn't know they would do it like that.

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    OG Murd's Avatar
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    Thx ACE... OVER with 11+ mins to go.

  19. #19
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    Originally Posted by Azwldctfan View Post
    Yes, very nice call.... Although I question if how it got to the over (Seattle with 85% of the points) was close to how you thought it was going to get there? :) Doesn't matter, still counts!! I knew Seattle would win that game but damn I didn't know they would do it like that.

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    No i dont because thats a point only amateurs bring up.

    Systems dont take into account weather, players and SEMANTICS. They take into account the OUTCOME. The thing that winning wagers are based on. It allows me to cap a game two weeks out and parlay every winning wager I had over the last two weeks for one glorious outcome.

    Manning usually gets the points that lead to the over but his style of play when he doesnt also leads to his games going over as we all saw. So how it got there is a silly question and has nothing to do with anything bud.

  20. #20
    Wildcat Fan Azwldctfan's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by ACE View Post
    No i dont because thats a point only amateurs bring up.

    Systems dont take into account weather, players and SEMANTICS. They take into account the OUTCOME. The thing that winning wagers are based on. It allows me to cap a game two weeks out and parlay every winning wager I had over the last two weeks for one glorious outcome.

    Manning usually gets the points that lead to the over but his style of play when he doesn't also leads to his games going over as we all saw. So how it got there is a silly question and has nothing to do with anything bud.
    I certainly am an amateur. Lord knows I love a good system (Go System Engineers!), but if I knew the O/U was 47 and was told a head of time that Denver was going to score 8 points, I would have used that information and bet my house on the under. Thankfully I still have a house! :) I am happy that all of you won.

  21. #21
    Commissioner ACE's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Azwldctfan View Post
    I certainly am an amateur. Lord knows I love a good system (Go System Engineers!), but if I knew the O/U was 47 and was told a head of time that Denver was going to score 8 points, I would have used that information and bet my house on the under. Thankfully I still have a house! :) I am happy that all of you won.
    Of course, thats the same reason they show you that card in blakcjack. All the amateurs think it helps them when it really just makes them make the first move which is all the house wants. People think dealer must have a 20! Well maybe the dealer has 15 just like you and you're just seeing the face card.

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