Cool Grantland Article on the Future of Sports Analytics
Every “state” of a basketball possession has a value. This value is based on the probability of a made basket occurring, and is equal to the total number of expected points that will result from that possession. While the average NBA possession is worth close to one point, that exact value of expected points fluctuates moment to moment, and these fluctuations depend on what’s happening on the floor....
Furthermore, it was their belief that, using the troves of SportVU data, we could — for the first time — estimate these values for every split second of an entire NBA season. They proposed that if we could build a model that accounts for a few key factors — like the locations of the players, their individual scoring abilities, who possesses the ball, his on-ball tendencies, and his position on the court — we could start to quantify performance value in the NBA in a new way.
I don't think is particularly a new idea, especially for the hoops nerds, coaches or point guards, but it was new to me. I like the fact each moment in time can be assign an metric.
Hopefully stats like this will not only give us better predictions but it can help players realize that basketball truly is a team game.
Yeah - I've been all over this on Twitter.
Originally Posted by AztecWildcat
Glad I didn't turn in my NBA draft/career projection model paper to Sloan this season - I'd have zero chance against the collab and computing power of this research.
Read that article, loved it. If I knew I could get a job with the Suns, I'd put in my application for a Ph.D in Stats tomorrow.
Do it Apps.
Yep. I really can't wait for the new era of real time analytics. Imagine this stuff being calculated and displayed live to the arena as a play unfolds.