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Arizona Pulls off a Statistical Anomoly

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    Norcal Ninjas BaycatJ's Avatar
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    Default Arizona Pulls off a Statistical Anomoly

    In the game of basketball, a common referenced indicator of success is the "Four Factors". Typically each factor is weighted a little differently depending on who you talk to, but in general, if you can beat the other team in 3 of the categories, you probably win the game. Last night, Arizona lost in all 4 categories, or at least would have if not for the tiniest of margins. Basically, Arizona pulled off the incredibly improbable. Here's how...

    eFG% - Arizona shot 36% to Stanford's 37.5% from the field. The ONLY reason that Arizona actually walked away with this category is that they hit 6 3's to Stanford's 3. Therefore, the eFG% difference was AZ: 42%, Furd: 40%. So Arizona won this category by a hair...

    TOs - Arizona had 8 TOs to Stanford's 7. Stanford wins this category. There's no shame in having 8 TOs, but at the end of the day, it's all about having less than your opponent and Stanford ultimately had an extra possession because of it. It can also be pointed out that Arizona had 4 steals to Stanford's 1, so more of Arizona's TOs were unforced. It'd be great to see those reduced.

    Rebounding - Arizona was outrebounded by Stanford 36 to 38, which equals 2 extra possessions for the Cardinal. That marks the 1st time that Arizona has lost the rebounding battle. This is something that Arizona should own. Nick and TJ combined for 13 rebounds which is a huge reason why Arizona was even close. York also skied for a stellar rebound in there. Props to the guards. I'm guessing the bigs got a few of these..

    Free Throws - Arizona shot worse from the FT line than Stanford. 62% to 67%. Ultimately, Arizona actually made more though; 18 to 12, which means that technically Arizona won the category, but this was scary. The freshmen combined to hit only 42%. Criticizing them doesn't help since this is clearly a mental game at this point, but 42%... that's just not ok. Even Zeus "Zeus" ZeusZeuski and his butterball hands are hitting an extremely respectable 79%.
    Last edited by BaycatJ; 01-30-2014 at 07:46 AM.

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    Chi City Chronic LJTucson's Avatar
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    Great analysis. Didn't know what I'd see when I clicked on the link "these" and then laughed out loud - great picture.
    "If you want what you've never had, you have to do what you've never done." -- Thomas Jefferson

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    I hear you BaycatJ. I look at the box scores after the games and when I saw that we lost in just about every category last night it made me think...how did the Wildcats win this game? It's one of those odd things where the achievements don't justify the results. Hard to figure.

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    Originally Posted by BaycatJ View Post
    Rebounding - Arizona was outrebounded by Stanford 36 to 38, which equals 2 extra possessions for the Cardinal. That marks the 3rd time that Arizona has lost the rebounding battle.
    I thought this was the FIRST time Arizona was outrebounded this season?

    Last night definitely served as a perfect example of why the game is played on the court, because on paper Arizona lost.
    "This isn't the place to pout" -- Sean Miller, 21 October 2012

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    Norcal Ninjas BaycatJ's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by roverfish View Post
    I thought this was the FIRST time Arizona was outrebounded this season?

    Last night definitely served as a perfect example of why the game is played on the court, because on paper Arizona lost.
    You're right. They tied twice before, but this is the first time they lost the battle.

    And on paper Arizona won. It's just a bit of an anomaly. You can't win a game that you lost on paper. You play the games because teams on paper prior to the game don't necessarily equal the teams that show up.

    Also I just realized I spelled anomaly wrong in the title. Damnit.

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    Chi City Chronic beardown3232's Avatar
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    Awesome analysis, BaycatJ
    Ezra Amacher

    "It amazes me how often I'm asked by players, "what position will I play, coach?" ... What position does Ginobli play? #thebestplayersplay - Sean Miller's fourth tweet

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    Wildcat Fan Trumpet Cat's Avatar
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    Apparently if you check out CBSsports.com they show Mark Lyons still on the roster. If they are going to add past players at least add Salim, he was clutch from the line.

    http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask...beats-stanford

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    Bleeds red and blue roverfish's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by BaycatJ View Post
    You're right. They tied twice before, but this is the first time they lost the battle.

    And on paper Arizona won. It's just a bit of an anomaly. You can't win a game that you lost on paper. You play the games because teams on paper prior to the game don't necessarily equal the teams that show up.
    The "on paper" is a reference to the categories Arizona did not win. Just agreeing with your point. I'll put it in my terms: somewhere in the second half, I'd made peace with the idea of the streak ending because Arizona did not look the better team. Glad they figured things out and turned up the D, but that gameplan won't work against Cal on Saturday.
    "This isn't the place to pout" -- Sean Miller, 21 October 2012

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    Solid Player Bacon's Avatar
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    We missed so many free throws that it's not a major surprise we lost the rebounding battle. We make more of those and we win the battle easily.

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    Norcal Ninjas BaycatJ's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by FREAK View Post
    We missed so many free throws that it's not a major surprise we lost the rebounding battle. We make more of those and we win the battle easily.
    Yeah. That. And AZ's 6 offensive boards to Stanford's 8.

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    Solid Player Bacon's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by BaycatJ View Post
    Yeah. That. And AZ's 6 offensive boards to Stanford's 8.
    Touche. Did Arizona make any free throws in the one and one all game?

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    Originally Posted by titan4wildcats View Post
    I hear you BaycatJ. I look at the box scores after the games and when I saw that we lost in just about every category last night it made me think...how did the Wildcats win this game? It's one of those odd things where the achievements don't justify the results. Hard to figure.
    The Wildcats didn't really win this game. They just happened to be ahead by one possession when time expired (thankfully Furd missed that last 3-point attempt that would have tied the game and it didn't go into overtime).

    I'm being somewhat facetious of course, but I think the point is made.
    "Happiness begins where selfishness ends." - Bill Walton

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    Norcal Ninjas BaycatJ's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by FREAK View Post
    Touche. Did Arizona make any free throws in the one and one all game?
    Rondae missed both in the 1st half and Nick missed 2 and Aaron the 3rd one in the 2nd half. FUBAR.

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    KillerCarlson
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    Default Shimmy Away

    When Rondae missed one of his free throws in the first half and Miller called a time out before he shot the second attempt, Rondae peeled off his sleeve and through it on the bench and Miller was animatedly talking to Rondae. I'm pretty sure Miller told him to get back to whatever it was that made him comfortable at the line, as if you noticed the rest of the way Rondae did that "shimmy" before his release. And wouldn't you know, he made his free throws again.....Shimmy away Rondae, Shimmy away!

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    Originally Posted by BaycatJ View Post
    Rondae missed both in the 1st half and Nick missed 2 and Aaron the 3rd one in the 2nd half. FUBAR.
    Even though it doesn't play out in the box score, I've always considered missing the front-end going 0-for-2; technically, you're losing the opportunity to score two points.

    It happens to every team, so I'm hardly saying Arizona has been the only victim this season, but it seems they've missed an INORDINATE number of front-ends. Had they made even 70% of potential FT's last night - which any good CBB team should be expected to - not only do they win fairly easily (by 9), but they also go from scoring 0.92 PPP to 1.02 PPP (which is a huge difference).

    This FT issue must be corrected. Bottom line.
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    Solid Player Bacon's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by BaycatJ View Post
    Rondae missed both in the 1st half and Nick missed 2 and Aaron the 3rd one in the 2nd half. FUBAR.
    There's 5 of Furd's defensive rebounds. FUBAR indeed.

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    Wildcat Fan JS Esq.'s Avatar
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    Cats were equally ineffective at front-ends against Utah. I believe there were three misses in the last five minutes or so - 2 by NJ and 1 by AG. This is clearly a trend that cannot continue.

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    Wildcat Fan AlwaysBeenACatFan's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by KillerCarlson View Post
    When Rondae missed one of his free throws in the first half and Miller called a time out before he shot the second attempt, Rondae peeled off his sleeve and through it on the bench and Miller was animatedly talking to Rondae. I'm pretty sure Miller told him to get back to whatever it was that made him comfortable at the line, as if you noticed the rest of the way Rondae did that "shimmy" before his release. And wouldn't you know, he made his free throws again.....Shimmy away Rondae, Shimmy away!
    "I would rather look bad winning, then look good losing."
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    Norcal Ninjas bengcord3's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by TraneofThought View Post
    Even though it doesn't play out in the box score, I've always considered missing the front-end going 0-for-2; technically, you're losing the opportunity to score two points.

    It happens to every team, so I'm hardly saying Arizona has been the only victim this season, but it seems they've missed an INORDINATE number of front-ends. Had they made even 70% of potential FT's last night - which any good CBB team should be expected to - not only do they win fairly easily (by 9), but they also go from scoring 0.92 PPP to 1.02 PPP (which is a huge difference).

    This FT issue must be corrected. Bottom line.
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    Originally Posted by KillerCarlson View Post
    When Rondae missed one of his free throws in the first half and Miller called a time out before he shot the second attempt, Rondae peeled off his sleeve and through it on the bench and Miller was animatedly talking to Rondae. I'm pretty sure Miller told him to get back to whatever it was that made him comfortable at the line, as if you noticed the rest of the way Rondae did that "shimmy" before his release. And wouldn't you know, he made his free throws again.....Shimmy away Rondae, Shimmy away!
    Love the shimmy.
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    Originally Posted by FREAK View Post
    Touche. Did Arizona make any free throws in the one and one all game?
    2nd half end of game foul 7, NJ missed the front end. Foul 8, AG missed the front end. Foul 9, NJ sunk both. that may have been the only one all night.

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    If the team does extra FT shooting at night, I am ready to collect balls for them and cheer for them. #BearDown

    If we want championship, we got to work harder and harder.

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    Damn, we really had no business winning this game. Better get our heads out of our ass or we can easily get dropped by Cal.

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    Arizona Wildcats
    STARTERS MIN FGM-A 3PM-A FTM-A OREB DREB REB AST STL BLK TO PF PTS
    Brandon Ashley, F 32 3-9 1-3 3-3 0 3 3 0 1 1 2 3 10
    Aaron Gordon, F 34 2-10 0-2 1-3 2 7 9 0 0 1 1 3 5
    Kaleb Tarczewski, C 26 1-4 0-0 3-3 1 3 4 1 1 0 1 4 5
    T.J. McConnell, G 35 5-8 1-3 0-0 0 8 8 4 1 0 0 3 11
    Nick Johnson, G 33 4-9 3-4 5-9 0 5 5 4 1 1 0 3 16
    BENCH MIN FGM-A 3PM-A FTM-A OREB DREB REB AST STL BLK TO PF PTS
    Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, F 23 2-7 0-0 4-9 2 1 3 1 0 1 3 1 8
    Jordin Mayes, G 1 0-1 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
    Gabe York, G 16 1-2 1-2 2-2 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 1 5
    TOTALS FGM-A 3PM-A FTM-A OREB DREB REB AST STL BLK TO PF PTS
    18-50 6-14 18-29 6 30 36 12 4 4 8 18 60
    36.0% 42.9% 62.1%
    Stanford Cardinal
    STARTERS MIN FGM-A 3PM-A FTM-A OREB DREB REB AST STL BLK TO PF PTS
    Dwight Powell, F 23 5-8 0-0 3-6 1 5 6 1 0 0 2 4 13
    Josh Huestis, F 39 5-16 1-4 2-2 2 9 11 0 0 1 1 2 13
    Stefan Nastic, C 30 4-7 0-0 2-2 2 3 5 1 0 1 2 2 10
    Chasson Randle, G 40 3-15 1-5 5-8 1 4 5 3 0 0 2 3 12
    Anthony Brown, G 39 3-9 1-3 0-0 0 4 4 0 0 0 0 3 7
    BENCH MIN FGM-A 3PM-A FTM-A OREB DREB REB AST STL BLK TO PF PTS
    John Gage, F 6 0-0 0-0 0-0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0
    Grant Verhoeven, C 4 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0
    Robbie Lemons, G 12 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 0
    Marcus Allen, G 7 1-1 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 2
    TOTALS FGM-A 3PM-A FTM-A OREB DREB REB AST STL BLK TO PF PTS
    21-56 3-12 12-18 8 30 38 5 1 2 7 23 57
    37.5% 25.0% 66.7%
    Technical Fouls: PLAYERS: None - TEAMS: None
    Officials: Shawn Lehigh, Verne Harris, Tony Padilla
    Attendance: 7,233


    They made more shots, but we hit 3 more 3pt shots. If you do not count foul shots, they are up by 3 points. Good thing they foul so much, since even as dismal as our FT shooting was, it was the difference in the game having 6 more pts off FTs. The most alarming stat was losing the rebound battle...yikes. We were also down 6 on our usual amount of ASTs.

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    Wildcat Fan Seans Cough's Avatar
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    We won because Powell got his 4th foul and had to sit for awhile.
    "When I took my visit to UofA, it was like the heavens opened up and showed me the light and behind that light, McKale Center" - Channing Frye

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    The Triple dtread7's Avatar
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    Default Arizona Pulls off a Statistical Anomoly

    Always appreciated Baycat. Thanks


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    Maui Big Black Howler Monkeys DoubleJ's Avatar
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    I'm usually more critical of the Cats than most, and in this case I will say that it's significant that we are getting wins in games that we "should" be losing. With the above offensive stats Baycat mentioned, that's an L 99% of the time for any team. Cats win. Gritty, poised, and superb defense getting a win on a night that should be a loss. The important piece will be, do we get better from this? Just because we won on the scoreboard, doesn't mean we can abandon the process. I expect a better offensive showing against Cal.

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    Wildcat Fan Statman's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by DoubleJ View Post
    I'm usually more critical of the Cats than most, and in this case I will say that it's significant that we are getting wins in games that we "should" be losing. With the above offensive stats Baycat mentioned, that's an L 99% of the time for any team. Cats win. Gritty, poised, and superb defense getting a win on a night that should be a loss. The important piece will be, do we get better from this? Just because we won on the scoreboard, doesn't mean we can abandon the process. I expect a better offensive showing against Cal.
    Not really. Getting outrebounded by 2, out TO'd by 1, outshooting your opponent slightly, and hitting 6 more FT's (despite poor %) - I'd expect a better chance for a win than a loss.

    It wasn't pretty, at all. It was a win.

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    Wildcat Fan NastinessIsRequired's Avatar
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    That's a super interesting anomaly.

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    When it comes to Arizona Basketball, I would rather hear about statistical dominance than statistical anomalies. Beardown!

  31. #31
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    Originally Posted by KillerCarlson View Post
    When Rondae missed one of his free throws in the first half and Miller called a time out before he shot the second attempt, Rondae peeled off his sleeve and through it on the bench and Miller was animatedly talking to Rondae. I'm pretty sure Miller told him to get back to whatever it was that made him comfortable at the line, as if you noticed the rest of the way Rondae did that "shimmy" before his release. And wouldn't you know, he made his free throws again.....Shimmy away Rondae, Shimmy away!
    I caught that as well and truly believe that Rondae is most confident when he incorporates that into his shot. It's part of his routine, it's unconventional, but it seemingly works. I don't think I recall him missing after that. If he did, then he wasn't off the way he was before the shimmy. I think the last one he missed completely clanged off the side of the rim. *ugly* Kinda reminds me of golfers with unconventional swings that work. They try and switch it up to something mainstream and it's all downhill from there.
    "Nastiness is required" - Sean Miller, Coach, University of Arizona

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