Ken Pomroy did a great piece on ESPN about transfers and how he expects them to perform. In summary, the piece was about looking at transfers objectively and statistically, which allows him to see all 200 transfers and directly compare them. He looked mostly at 2 predictive categories: projected usage % and projected offensive efficiency.
Here's an excerpt:
And here's the write up on TJ:Transfers have become a bigger part of the game in recent seasons, and assessing their impact has become more important. This provides a new frontier for college basketball analysis. I know I've been somewhat confused at how seemingly ordinary players from lower leagues can transfer to a better team and have success. It's not even that they have success, it's that they're widely expected to have success before they play their first game.
For instance, T.J. McConnell was third-team All-Atlantic 10 in his freshman season at Duquesne, and yet he's being touted as a possible first-team All-Pac-12 player for Arizona by people in the know. As a freshman, Rodney Hood was the fifth offensive option on a Mississippi State squad that didn't threaten to get a bid to the NCAA tournament. Now many are expecting him to be one of the best players in the ACC in his first season at Duke.
TJ had a low usage % (20), which shouldn't be surprising with the number of other options Arizona will have offensively. But he did have the 2nd highest offensive efficiency (111), which is pretty damn impressive.T.J. McConnell, Arizona Wildcats (111/20)
The model has the experts' backs on McConnell. It's no stretch to say he'll be one of the most productive transfers in college basketball. He won't dominate the ball the way Mark Lyons did, but he should be more efficient.